An unfounded scientific assertion by a nonscientist has swept across the Web like a tsunami over the past few days. In an article in Newsweek, writer Simon Winchester claimed that the 9.0-magnitude Japan earthquake, following close on the heels of recent quakes in New Zealand and Chile, has ratcheted up the chances of a catastrophic seismic event striking in California.
In his article, "The Scariest Earthquake Is Yet to Come," Winchester pointed out that all three of those recent earthquakes occurred along faults on the edge of the Pacific Plate — the giant tectonic puzzle piece under the Pacific Ocean — and that this also butts up against the North American plate along the San Andreas Fault.
"[A] significant event on one side of a major tectonic plate is often … followed some weeks or months later by another on the plate’s far side," he wrote. "Now there have been catastrophic events at three corners of the Pacific Plate — one in the northwest, on Friday; one in the southwest, last month; one in the southeast, last year. That leaves just one corner unaffected — the northeast. And the fault line in the northeast of the Pacific Plate is the San Andreas Fault, underpinning the city of San Francisco."
Winchester claimed that the geological community is "very apprehensive" about these earthquakes triggering a massive California quake. Life's Little Mysteries, a sister site to LiveScience, checked that claim with a panel of geophysicists.
"There is no evidence for a connection between all of the Pacific Rim earthquakes," Nathan Bangs, a geophysicist who studies tectonic processes at the University of Texas Institute for Geophysics, told Life's Little Mysteries. "I don't know what the basis is for the statements and implications in the Newsweek article, but there is no evidence that there is a link."
U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) earthquake geologist David Schwartz, who heads the San Francisco Bay Area Earthquake Hazards Project, concurred. "Simon Winchester is a popular science writer, not a scientist," Schwartz said. "I'm not saying we won't have an earthquake here in California at some point in the future, but there really is no physical connection between these earthquakes."
Schwartz explained that earthquakes can indeed cascade, with one setting off another — but only locally. "When an earthquake happens, it changes the stress in the vicinity around it, and if there are other faults nearby, this increase in stress can trigger them and produce more earthquakes. In other places, it relaxes the crust and puts earthquakes off," he said.
In New Zealand, for example, a 7.1-magnitude earthquake that rumbled 20 miles northwest of the city of Christchurch in September triggered the much smaller 6.3-magnitude that occurred closer to the city in February. The 1906 San Francisco earthquake, on the other hand, relaxed nearby faults, which has placed the region in a relatively quake-free "stress shadow" for the past 100 years. "But these static stress changes occur in a relatively restricted region," Schwartz said. The effects of the stress changes aren't just anybody's guess, either: Scientists can produce very accurate computer models of the local stress transfer.
Rich Briggs, a USGS geologist whose work focuses on how earthquakes happen, explained another way in which earthquakes can cascade. "The other way earthquakes affect their neighbors is that when a fault ruptures, it sends out seismic waves that in the case of large earthquakes can even circle the globe. In some cases, this 'dynamic stress transfer' increases seismicity," Briggs told Life's Little Mysteries. "But that only happens as waves go by, in the minutes that it takes the waves to travel out from the fault zone."
The dynamic stress transfer induces aftershocks immediately after the initial seismic event — not days, months, or years after. Because the 9.0-magnitude earthquake that hit Japan can only alter regional faults, the dynamic stress transfer process is the only way to set off a similar reaction in California. If that were the case, though, the earthquake would have hit already.
So when will a major earthquake strike California? "Based on models taking into account the long-term rate of slip on the San Andreas fault and the amount of offset that occurred on the fault in 1906, the best guess is that 1906-type earthquakes occur at intervals of about 200 years," Robert Williams, USGS seismologist, wrote in an email. "Because of the time needed to accumulate slip equal to a 20-foot offset, there is only a small chance (about 2 percent) that such an earthquake could occur in the next 30 years."
"The real threat to the San Francisco Bay region over the next 30 years comes not from a 1906-type earthquake, but from smaller (magnitude about 7) earthquakes occurring on the Hayward fault, the Peninsula segment of the San Andreas fault, or the Rodgers Creek fault," Williams wrote.
Schwartz agreed that the Hayward fault, located just east of the San Francisco Bay, is more likely to slip than the San Andreas. But the bottom line is that, "if a fault slips, it will do so on its own, not because of something 5,000 miles away."
"I think the idea of saying the earthquake hazard is real is good, because it hopefully gets people to prepare. It's hard to get people to prepare," Schwartz said. "But to scare people by saying the earthquakes are jumping around and the next place one will jump is here – that's just bad science."
Martes, Marso 22 2011
How to Make $1 Million Before You Graduate
These entrepreneurs, interviewed by Forbes over the last three years, started launching businesses by the tender age of 9. Some of them identified problems and created companies to solve them, while others turned their hobbies into money-making ventures. Some teamed up with friends, parents and mentors; others plowed ahead on their own. To qualify for this round-up, the kids had to have cracked $1 million in revenue before college graduation and by age 22 (or be on track to do so), or had to have received funding that valued their operations at $1 million or more.
Autocricket
In the summer of 2008, after his high school graduation, Jason Brian started working in the marketing department of a South Florida car dealership. He knew the future of marketing was on the Web. "With half of the money, I found that I could double the results," by buying online ads and using search engine optimization techniques, he recalls. Three years later, at age 21, Brian spent "less than $10,000" of his savings to build a website that would help consumers look for cars. Autocricket.com made money by selling customers' information to dealers and manufacturers, which could market to customers directly. Six months after launch the site attracted the attention of two entrepreneurs in Naples, Fla., who invested $250,000. The site generated $1.2 million in revenue in 2009, when Brian was 22. In 2010 it did $6 million.
Showclix
In 2005, when he was 18, Joshua Dziabiak sold his first company--a Web hosting firm called Mediacatch--for north of $1 million. He bought a Mercedes (in cash) and a flat-screen TV, and used the rest to invest in other companies, including Showclix, his current venture, a website that lets performing arts centers, colleges, live music venues and other outlets sell tickets online, over the phone and at their box offices. In 2009 he raised nearly $1 million, which valued the company at $2.75 million. Showclix collects services fees (usually paid by the ticket buyer) of 7% to 15% of ticket sales. Those fees brought in $9 million last year.
Metrolyrics.com
In 2002, when Milun Tesovic was 16, he started a music website as a hobby, compiling lyrics to his favorite songs. Two years later he decided to turn it into a company. Today Metrolyrics.com has a database of lyrics of 2 million songs; it licenses some of them, and others users post on the site for free. The company, now with 20 employees, makes money selling ads, and hit $1 million in revenue in 2007, when Tesovic was 21. Tesovic juggles work with classes at Simon Fraser University in British Columbia, Canada, where he is a business major. "For me education isn't helping me find a career," he says. "It's more about growing myself."
Solben
Twenty-year-old Daniel Gómez Iñiguez launched Solben, a company that designs and manufactures a press that extracts oil from plants to produce diesel fuel. Iñiguez began his R&D in high school. He sold to his first client for $150,000--$75,000 up front to help build the product, followed by $75,000 upon delivery. The Monterrey, Mexico, company brought in "a little over $1 million" in revenue during its first year of business. Today it employs 15 full-time staff; Iñiguez is entering his junior year of college.
Glasses Direct
When 21-year-old university student Jamie Murray Wells attempted to buy a pair of prescription eyeglasses in 2004, he had a vision for a new type of business. Nonplussed by the $300 price tag, Wells decided to leave school and funnel his $2,000 student loan into what would become Glasses Direct, a London-based online retailer. In the first year the company's revenue topped $2 million.
Note: At the time of this writing, in 2010, the company pulled in $5 million in annual revenue, employed 70 people and had raked in $34 million in venture funding.
SuperJam
In 2002, at the age of 14, Fraser Doherty started making jams in his parents' kitchen in Edinburgh, Scotland. By age 16 Doherty left school to work on his jams full time. SuperJam's revenue hit $1.2 million in 2009.
Note: At the time of this writing, in 2010, Doherty remained the company's only full-time employee. Based on a reasonable valuation multiple of one time revenue (jelly maker J.M. Smucker traded between 1 and 1.5 times revenue), Doherty's debt-free stake was worth between $1 million and $2 million.
Mydesktop.com
In 1996 Michael Furdyk, then 16, started MyDesktop.com, an online computer magazine, in the basement of his parents' home in suburban Toronto. His site was filled with tips and advice Furdyk gleaned in online chat rooms, where he came across fellow teenager Michael Hayman. Hayman, an Australian, moved to Toronto to help build the business. Running lean, the pair bartered for website storage space and office rent. Soon MyDesktop.com was bringing in $60,000 a month in ad revenue from blue-chip clients like Microsoft.
Note: In 1999 Furdyk, Hayman and a third partner sold the site to Internet.com for "over $1 million," Furdyk told Forbes in 2010.
AutocricketIn the summer of 2008, after his high school graduation, Jason Brian started working in the marketing department of a South Florida car dealership. He knew the future of marketing was on the Web. "With half of the money, I found that I could double the results," by buying online ads and using search engine optimization techniques, he recalls. Three years later, at age 21, Brian spent "less than $10,000" of his savings to build a website that would help consumers look for cars. Autocricket.com made money by selling customers' information to dealers and manufacturers, which could market to customers directly. Six months after launch the site attracted the attention of two entrepreneurs in Naples, Fla., who invested $250,000. The site generated $1.2 million in revenue in 2009, when Brian was 22. In 2010 it did $6 million.
Showclix
In 2005, when he was 18, Joshua Dziabiak sold his first company--a Web hosting firm called Mediacatch--for north of $1 million. He bought a Mercedes (in cash) and a flat-screen TV, and used the rest to invest in other companies, including Showclix, his current venture, a website that lets performing arts centers, colleges, live music venues and other outlets sell tickets online, over the phone and at their box offices. In 2009 he raised nearly $1 million, which valued the company at $2.75 million. Showclix collects services fees (usually paid by the ticket buyer) of 7% to 15% of ticket sales. Those fees brought in $9 million last year.
Metrolyrics.comIn 2002, when Milun Tesovic was 16, he started a music website as a hobby, compiling lyrics to his favorite songs. Two years later he decided to turn it into a company. Today Metrolyrics.com has a database of lyrics of 2 million songs; it licenses some of them, and others users post on the site for free. The company, now with 20 employees, makes money selling ads, and hit $1 million in revenue in 2007, when Tesovic was 21. Tesovic juggles work with classes at Simon Fraser University in British Columbia, Canada, where he is a business major. "For me education isn't helping me find a career," he says. "It's more about growing myself."
SolbenTwenty-year-old Daniel Gómez Iñiguez launched Solben, a company that designs and manufactures a press that extracts oil from plants to produce diesel fuel. Iñiguez began his R&D in high school. He sold to his first client for $150,000--$75,000 up front to help build the product, followed by $75,000 upon delivery. The Monterrey, Mexico, company brought in "a little over $1 million" in revenue during its first year of business. Today it employs 15 full-time staff; Iñiguez is entering his junior year of college.
Glasses Direct
When 21-year-old university student Jamie Murray Wells attempted to buy a pair of prescription eyeglasses in 2004, he had a vision for a new type of business. Nonplussed by the $300 price tag, Wells decided to leave school and funnel his $2,000 student loan into what would become Glasses Direct, a London-based online retailer. In the first year the company's revenue topped $2 million.
Note: At the time of this writing, in 2010, the company pulled in $5 million in annual revenue, employed 70 people and had raked in $34 million in venture funding.
 Dave Hogan/Getty |
In 2002, at the age of 14, Fraser Doherty started making jams in his parents' kitchen in Edinburgh, Scotland. By age 16 Doherty left school to work on his jams full time. SuperJam's revenue hit $1.2 million in 2009.
Note: At the time of this writing, in 2010, Doherty remained the company's only full-time employee. Based on a reasonable valuation multiple of one time revenue (jelly maker J.M. Smucker traded between 1 and 1.5 times revenue), Doherty's debt-free stake was worth between $1 million and $2 million.
Mydesktop.com
In 1996 Michael Furdyk, then 16, started MyDesktop.com, an online computer magazine, in the basement of his parents' home in suburban Toronto. His site was filled with tips and advice Furdyk gleaned in online chat rooms, where he came across fellow teenager Michael Hayman. Hayman, an Australian, moved to Toronto to help build the business. Running lean, the pair bartered for website storage space and office rent. Soon MyDesktop.com was bringing in $60,000 a month in ad revenue from blue-chip clients like Microsoft.
Note: In 1999 Furdyk, Hayman and a third partner sold the site to Internet.com for "over $1 million," Furdyk told Forbes in 2010.
Power to the pocket: The next generation of superphones
These up-and-comers from the smartphone world will redefine the boundaries of mobile computing with full HD video playback, dual-core processors, and more.
We’re sick of the iPhone, too. Despite antenna issues, Draconian app store rules and an engineered inability to run Flash content, Apple’s flagship smartphone has done to the smartphone market what the
Romans once did to Europe.
The good news: Now a marauding horde of smartphone manufacturers under the flag of Google Android are back for their turf, and they’re not just cobbling together iPhone-wannabes anymore. From the world’s first dual-screen smartphone to a phone with all the processing power of a laptop – and a dock that turns it into one – these next-generation smartphones will all bring something totally unique to the battlefield when they arrive soon.
Skeptic’s slant: 3D seems questionable enough on a television, on a phone it’s almost comically frivolous. Adding depth to a screen you have to touch could actually make the phone harder to use, and experience also tells us that viewing 3D content on a screen this small typically lacks the punch that has made 3D a hot seller in theaters.
Availability: LG announced the Optimus 3D at Mobile World Congress in February; both price and availability are TBD.
Skeptic’s slant: The optional laptop dock will cost you $500, and because it doesn’t run Windows 7, it does a lot less than a $350 netbook would.
Availability: AT&T is currently selling the Atrix 4G for $199 with a two-year contract.
Skeptic’s slant: Not many apps will work with the dual-screen functionality right off the bat, and running two screens at once will cost you big time on battery life.
Availability: Sprint offers the Echo for $199 with contract, but it won’t begin shipping until sometime later in spring.
Skeptic’s slant: Sprint’s 4.3-inch EVO 4G already dropped jaws (and stretched pockets) with its screen size. Is a 4.5-inch screen on a phone really practical?
Availability: Samsung’s Infuse 4G will arrive in the second quarter of 2011 exclusively on AT&T.
Skeptic’s slant: It’s warmed-over EVO 4G on Verizon. On second thought, maybe that’s not such a bad thing after all.
Availability: The ThunderBolt is available with Verizon Wireless, priced at $249.99 with a 2-Year contract.
Skeptic’s slant: Apps have to be specially developed to take advantage of the dual-core design, which means few of them will really tap into what the Optimus 2x can do at launch.
Availability: Rumors have the Optimus 2x launching in late March or early April, but LG will launch the Optimus 2x as a “world phone.” That means it won’t be showing up at the store down the street with a hefty subsidy like phones that carriers officially adopt – you’ll have to snag it online, without a contract, for a hefty sum.
Romans once did to Europe.
The good news: Now a marauding horde of smartphone manufacturers under the flag of Google Android are back for their turf, and they’re not just cobbling together iPhone-wannabes anymore. From the world’s first dual-screen smartphone to a phone with all the processing power of a laptop – and a dock that turns it into one – these next-generation smartphones will all bring something totally unique to the battlefield when they arrive soon.
LG Optimus 3D
The pitch: The 3D craze that has been raging on televisions for the last year finally reaches the small screen with the world’s first 3D smartphone. No glasses needed, just gaze into the 4.3-inch LCD and 3D content comes to life. As if that weren’t enough, dual 5-megapixel cameras in the rear allow you to capture 3D video in 1080p, for playback right on the phone, or a 3D TV via HDMI.Skeptic’s slant: 3D seems questionable enough on a television, on a phone it’s almost comically frivolous. Adding depth to a screen you have to touch could actually make the phone harder to use, and experience also tells us that viewing 3D content on a screen this small typically lacks the punch that has made 3D a hot seller in theaters.
Availability: LG announced the Optimus 3D at Mobile World Congress in February; both price and availability are TBD.
Motorola Atrix 4G
The pitch: Plug Motorola’s Atrix 4G into its optional dock and the humble smartphone becomes a 13-inch notebook, giving you a full-size screen, keyboard, and even a separate battery to charge the phone as it sits.Skeptic’s slant: The optional laptop dock will cost you $500, and because it doesn’t run Windows 7, it does a lot less than a $350 netbook would.
Availability: AT&T is currently selling the Atrix 4G for $199 with a two-year contract.
Kyocera Echo
The pitch: When the Echo’s little 3.5-inch touchscreen starts to feel a little cramped, slide it apart and a second identical screen rises up to meet it, providing a combined 4.7 inches of glowing LCD. The two screens allow you to browse side-by-side websites, read an e-mail in one screen while you reply in another, and even play games like The Sims where one screen acts as a controller, similar to the Nintendo DS.Skeptic’s slant: Not many apps will work with the dual-screen functionality right off the bat, and running two screens at once will cost you big time on battery life.
Availability: Sprint offers the Echo for $199 with contract, but it won’t begin shipping until sometime later in spring.
Samsung Infuse 4G
The pitch: With a whopping 4.5-inch Super AMOLED Plus Screen and a body as deep as a pencil, the Infuse 4G will be both the largest and thinnest phone in AT&T’s portfolio. Thanks to HSPA+ 4G, it will also be one of the fastest on the network. And did we mention it shoots 1080p video?Skeptic’s slant: Sprint’s 4.3-inch EVO 4G already dropped jaws (and stretched pockets) with its screen size. Is a 4.5-inch screen on a phone really practical?
Availability: Samsung’s Infuse 4G will arrive in the second quarter of 2011 exclusively on AT&T.
HTC ThunderBolt
The pitch: Verizon’s first 4G LTE handset will also be the first to support Skype-to-Skype video – with or without Wi-Fi. No more clambering around to find a hotspot when you want to videoconference, and being limited to friends with Facetime. It packs the same jumbo-sized 4.3-inch LCD and 8-megapixel camera as Sprint’s EVO 4G.Skeptic’s slant: It’s warmed-over EVO 4G on Verizon. On second thought, maybe that’s not such a bad thing after all.
Availability: The ThunderBolt is available with Verizon Wireless, priced at $249.99 with a 2-Year contract.
LG Optimus 2x
The pitch: Two is always better than one, which makes the LG Optimus 2x, the world’s first dual-core smartphone, quite a catch. Nvidia’s hotrod Tegra 2 processor enables rich gaming, fluid multitasking and even 1080p video capture. With the HDMI output, you can hook it up to your TV and watch movies on the big screen, in 1080p.Skeptic’s slant: Apps have to be specially developed to take advantage of the dual-core design, which means few of them will really tap into what the Optimus 2x can do at launch.
Availability: Rumors have the Optimus 2x launching in late March or early April, but LG will launch the Optimus 2x as a “world phone.” That means it won’t be showing up at the store down the street with a hefty subsidy like phones that carriers officially adopt – you’ll have to snag it online, without a contract, for a hefty sum.
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